Jamal believes that chocolate is the most popular ice cream flavor in his school. To prove this, he conducts a survey during lunch period. He asks 50 students the following question: “Don’t you think chocolate is the best ice cream flavor?”
Here are the results of his survey:
– 35 students agreed that chocolate is the best
– 10 students said they preferred other flavors
– 5 students said they don’t eat ice cream
Jamal concludes that his survey proves chocolate is the most popular flavor in the school.
1. Calculate the percentage of students who agreed that chocolate is the best flavor.
2. Identify at least two problems with Jamal’s survey method.
3. Explain what confirmation bias is and how it might have affected Jamal’s survey and conclusion.
4. Design a better survey question that would give more accurate results about ice cream flavor preferences.
1. Percentage calculation:
Students who agreed chocolate is best: 35
Total students surveyed: 50
Percentage = (35 ÷ 50) × 100 = 70%
2. Problems with Jamal’s survey method:
a) The question is leading and biased towards chocolate.
b) The sample size (50 students) might not be representative of the whole school.
c) The survey was conducted during one lunch period, which might not include a diverse group of students.
d) The question doesn’t allow for ranking or comparing multiple flavors.
3. Confirmation bias explanation:
Confirmation bias is the tendency to search for, interpret, favor, and recall information in a way that confirms one’s preexisting beliefs or hypotheses. In Jamal’s case:
– He already believed chocolate was the most popular.
– His survey question was designed to confirm this belief.
– He likely interpreted the results as strong proof, ignoring the flaws in his method.
4. A better survey question:
“What is your favorite ice cream flavor? Please choose one:
a) Chocolate b) Vanilla c) Strawberry d) Mint e) Other (please specify)”
This question is neutral, allows for multiple options, and can provide more accurate data about flavor preferences.
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