Mrs. Baker’s class is learning about weather patterns. She asks her 20 students to guess how many rainy days there will be next month. Before guessing, she shows them two different videos:
Group A (10 students): Watches a video showing heavy rainstorms from last year.
Group B (10 students): Watches a video showing sunny days from last year.
After watching the videos, each student makes a guess. Here are the results:
Group A:
Lowest guess: 10 days
Highest guess: 20 days
Average guess: 15 days
Group B:
Lowest guess: 3 days
Highest guess: 12 days
Average guess: 7 days
The actual average number of rainy days for that month over the past 10 years is 9 days.
1. What’s the difference between the average guesses of Group A and Group B?
2. Which group’s average guess was closer to the actual average of rainy days?
3. How many more rainy days did Group A guess on average compared to the actual average?
4. Why do you think the two groups guessed such different numbers?
5. If you had to guess the number of rainy days without watching any videos, what would be a good way to make your guess?
1. Difference between average guesses:
Group A average – Group B average = 15 – 7 = 8 days
2. Comparing to the actual average (9 days):
Group A difference: |9 – 15| = 6 days
Group B difference: |9 – 7| = 2 days
Group B’s average guess was closer to the actual average.
3. Group A’s overestimation:
15 – 9 = 6 more rainy days than the actual average
4. The two groups guessed different numbers because of availability bias. The video each group watched made certain weather conditions more “available” in their minds:
– Group A, who watched rainstorms, thought of rainy weather more easily and guessed higher.
– Group B, who watched sunny days, thought of sunny weather more easily and guessed lower.
5. Good ways to guess without watching videos:
– Look at actual weather data from past years
– Ask adults who have lived in the area for a long time
– Check official weather forecasts or climate information for your area
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